The electoral competitiveness in the presidential elections of Mexico (1970-2018)

Abstract

The objective of this article is to propose a new indicator of the partisan electoral competitiveness that partly describes the behaviour of the electoral results and that contributes elements for its explanation. In terms of methodology, firstly, the development and behaviour of the partisan electoral competitiveness in Mexico in federal elections from 1970 to 2018 is analyzed, supported by charts made by us with official results. Secondly, our Multi-party Indicator is tested using these charts and a scale. Regarding the conclusions, we may say that, in the presidential election of 1970 the PRI triumphs with 84.53 % of the total votes, in 2012 wins with only 32.62 % because the second and third electoral forces had been increased, in fact, PAN wins the presidential elections in 2000 and 2006, leaving the PRI in the second place, and for 2006, the For the Good of Everyone Alliance, led by the PRD, left it in the third place. Furthermore, the percentage sum of votes of the fourth, fifth and sixth electoral forces could be greater than the percentage of the third force. Thus, we emphasize that this scenario of electoral competitiveness makes the possibilities of using the Indicator feasible, as it has also been used in the paradigmatic presidential election of 2018.