Quantitative Determinants of Investment in Argentina:

Estimation Through an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of four macroeconomic variables—gross domestic product, real exchange rate, inflation rate, and real interest rate—on investment in durable production equipment (DPE) in Argentina during the 1994–2023 period, utilizing an autoregressive distributed lag econometric model. The selection of variables was based on a theoretical review and selective empirical testing aimed at describing short- and long-term relationships. This is a causal, quantitative, and longitudinal study applied to quarterly time series data obtained from official agencies. The results indicate a positive relationship between investment in DPE and gross domestic product, the latter being the primary determinant, while a negative relationship is observed with the real exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the real interest rate.